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Most banks and analysts frame the possibility of even higher oil prices or a forced closure of the strait as a small risk, for now. Citigroup, for instance, put the chance of a $120 barrel of oil at only 20% in a Monday note. Analysts have also noted the logistical difficulties Iran would face in ordering and maintaining a closure of the strait, including U.S. naval superiority in the region and the risks the regime would run of losing allies by cutting off energy supply. The threat of closure also isn’t new for the Islamic Republic, which has threatened to close the strait multiple times in the past, but never fully followed through.
第一百六十九条 因不可抗力或者其他不能归责于双方的原因致使被拖物不能拖至目的地的，除合同另有约定外，承拖方可以在目的地的邻近地点或者拖轮船长选定的安全的港口或者锚泊地，将被拖物移交给被拖方或者其代理人，视为已经履行合同。